The Long View

Jesse:
First, you should all feel free to track my increasingly heated argument with HU on the issue of the coalition in these comments. Second, I'm going to start trying to think about the long term effects of this "deal". For y'all!

(Contrary to what you may read in the comments I linked to above) this makes me nervous. Really, really nervous. The long term goal for all right-thinking (as in correct) Canadians has to be how we're going to put Prime Minister Stephen Harper out to pasture, permanent-like. So I think one question we need to consider, beyond the short-term point that I maintain this is good for the economy, whether that will happen. And I don't think this is partisan; I think this is about making sure our country at least vaguely resembles the fantastic shape Chrétien left it in. Which is probably partisan, since I, y'know, care about people.

So, what's the out come here? If this legitimizes the NDP (which other people have, more-than-fairly, voiced as a concern), does this mean perpetual darkness for the centre-to-left? The reason I'm nervous is that I say, "maybe". Liberals have won majority governments because a) the NDP is marginalized or b) the NDP is still sort of marginalized and the right is divided. You'll find (at least for now) that (b) is out of the question. In considering this, please bear in mind that Lightnin' Jack (good Lord, about to be the Honourable Lightnin' Jack) has been trying to eliminate the Liberal party for a while now, with the idea that with the Libs out of the way, from time to time we'll have to elect the NDP. (I'll concede there's probably some ideological stuff wrapped up in there too, whereby Jack, like Harper, thinks if we're just shown the light we'll throw off our shackles and all vote for his extremist policies).

Maybe that won't happen. Maybe everyone will accept that everything good this coalition (if it happens) does is the Liberals's call, and everything bad is Jack's. If so, perfect. We'll be right where we were, needing to find a leader who can shove Jack and Stephen out of the way to occupy the sweet nougat centre of the political spectrum. And we'll have a leg up, since Harper has looked like the colossal asshole that he is.

There's another option (other than the utter destruction of the Liberal party which, I emphasize again, I'm worried about). That option? We find a good way of dividing the country up between the Liberals and the NDP, by agreeing not to compete against each other in a series of ridings. To start, I presume this would include the ridings each party holds now, and then dividing the remaining ridings up by some formula (seat count, popular vote, whatnot). This would allow for some mobility going forward, because if one or the other party excelled against the Cons, they'd get to compete in more seats the next time.

The big, big risk here is that it means neither party is national. So whether you're a Liberal, or a Dipper who is just waiting for everyone to see the socialist light, you're giving up your chance for The Big One. In the last election, the Liberals won 77 seats, and the NDP 37. So that's 114 seats out of play. If we divide the remaining 194 up proportionally by seat, that means the Liberals compete in a total of 208, and the NDP in 100. So... although it looks like the Liberals could conceivably win 154 seats and tell their coalition partners to sod off... it's very unlikely... Someone (not me, I work) would need to sit down and sort out which ridings would likely be where, to see if it's at all feasible.

I'm not sure if I'm endorsing this yet... but we've seen how long it took a fractured right to get its act together. So I dunno. Just thinking aloud (a-type? I don't know what to call it).